What will Anthony Davis’ injury mean for the Lakers and their playoff chances?安东尼戴维斯的伤病对湖人队和他们的季后赛机会意味着什么？
The?Los Angeles Lakers?announced Saturday that forward?Anthony Davis?will miss?at least four weeks?before being reevaluated due to an MCL sprain in his left knee suffered during Friday’s loss at the?Minnesota Timberwolves. Davis’ absence is the latest setback for a Lakers team that has already used 15 different starting lineups this season,?according to Basketball-Reference.com, more than coach Frank Vogel used en route to the 2020 NBA championship.
的比赛中左膝扭伤将缺席?至少四周。根据 Basketball-Reference.com 的数据，戴维斯的缺席是湖人队最新的挫折，湖人本赛季已经使用了 15 个不同首发阵，比教练弗兰克沃格尔在 2020 年 NBA 总冠军的路上使用的还要多。
At 16-14, the Lakers are three games back of a top-four seed in the Western Conference despite playing the league’s easiest schedule to date in terms of opponent and location. Without Davis, they’ll find it more difficult to make up ground during a home-heavy stretch, with eight of their next 11 games in Los Angeles. The Lakers will ultimately make up for that favorable early schedule by playing 23 of their final 37 games on the road.
目前湖人队以 16胜-14负的战绩落后西部前四三场，尽管他们的赛程在对手和位置方面是联盟迄今为止最轻松的。如果没有戴维斯，他们会发现即便接下来11场比赛中有8场是在洛杉矶进行的，也很难取得好战绩。相对于湖人队最终早期有利的赛程，最后的37场比赛中有23场是在客场 。
After winning their way out of the play-in tournament last season before a first-round exit against the?Phoenix Suns, the Lakers were hoping for an 球王会 easier path this time around. How much more difficult might Davis’ absence make things? Let’s take a look.
Replacing The Brow替换浓眉
Losing a player as good as Davis is always a challenge, but it’s exacerbated by the Lakers’ depth issues after trading for?Russell Westbrook?during the offseason. Davis’ absence leaves?Dwight Howard?and?DeAndre Jordan?as the only veteran centers on the roster. (The Lakers also have rookie?Jay Huff, who is on a two-way contract and made just his second NBA appearance on Friday.)失去像戴维斯这样优秀的球员一直是一个挑战，同样在休赛期交易得到拉塞尔威斯布鲁克后，湖人队的深度问题也加剧了这一挑战?。戴维斯的缺席使得?德怀特霍华德?和?德安德鲁乔丹?成为名单上唯一的老将中锋。（湖人队还有新秀?杰伊赫夫，他签了一份双向合同，并在周五第二次参加了 NBA 比赛。）
Making matters worse, Howard is currently subject to the NBA’s health and safety protocols, likely sidelining him at least 球王会 another few days. As a result, prepare for a heavy dose of?LeBron James?playing center over the next few games, which could be particularly problematic in Tuesday’s matchup against the Suns and?Deandre Ayton.
更糟糕的是，霍华德目前受制于 NBA 的健康和安全协议，他很可能至少再缺阵几天。因此，?在接下来的几场比赛中，勒布朗詹姆斯要做好打中锋的准备，这将会在周二对阵太阳队和德安德烈艾顿的比赛中可能会有特别大的问题。
According to NBA Advanced Stats, James has played 97 minutes this season with none of Davis, Howard and Jordan on the court. More than half of those (56) have come in the past five games, as Vogel experiments with smaller lineups to put more shooting and scoring on the court. Although James has been more effective individually as a center — averaging 28.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 7.4 assists per 36 minutes, all up from his season-long marks — the Lakers’ offense hasn’t been particularly potent overall, and they have a modest plus-0.8 net 球王会 rating.
根据 NBA 高级统计数据，詹姆斯本赛季在戴维斯、霍华德和乔丹都没有在场的情况下打了 97 分。其中超过一半（56 分钟）是在过去的五场比，因为沃格尔尝试使用更小的阵容来在场上提供更多的投篮和得分。尽管詹姆斯作为中锋的个人效率更高——平均每 36 分钟得到 28.5 分、8.1 个篮板和 7.4 次助攻，这一切都高于他整个赛季的得分——但湖人队的整体进攻并没有特别强大，而且他们的净胜分只有 0.8 。
The biggest concern for the Lakers’ small frontcourts in the short term will be finding enough perimeter players to fill out a rotation. Wings?Avery Bradley,?Talen Horton-Tucker,?Malik Monk?and?Austin Reaves?are all unavailable subject to the protocols. That left the Lakers on Friday relying heavily on?Isaiah Thomas,?making his Lakers debut?after being signed to a 10-day hardship contract. The Lakers aren’t alone in being affected by COVID-19 right now, but Davis’ injury amplifies the situation.
湖人在短期内最大的问题将是找到足够的外线球员来填补小前锋轮换的空缺。根据协议，Wings? Avery Bradley、? Talen Horton-Tucker、? Malik Monk?和?Austin Reaves?均不可用。这让湖人队在周五严重依赖? 以赛亚·托马斯，这是他在于湖人在签下一份为期 10 天的短期合同后的处子秀。湖人队现在并不是唯一受到 COVID-19 影响的球队，但戴维斯的伤病加剧了对球队的影响。
At some point, the Lakers will get more options with the returns of forward?Trevor Ariza?and?Kendrick Nunn. Ariza, in particular, will help fill in at power forward next to James in small frontcourts, a spot where?Carmelo Anthony?is currently the only legitimate option.
More wear and tear on LeBron?更多的使用和消耗勒布朗?
Besides seeding, the other potential problem with losing Davis for an extended stretch is the pressure it puts on James. Not only will he likely have to play more against bigger frontcourt opponents, but James also might end up logging heavier minutes to keep the Lakers’ offense afloat.
Adding Westbrook was intended to help the Lakers stay potent without Davis and James after both stars were sidelined for a month in the second half of 2020-21, during which the team went 7-9. That hasn’t proved the case.
During 2020-21, lineups without both James and Davis ranked in the 15th percentile of all lineups in offensive rating and had a minus-3.2 net rating,?according to Cleaning the Glass, which factors out garbage time. This season, such lineups with Westbrook have been outscored by 2.8 points per 100 possessions and?rank in the 30th percentile in offensive rating.
据 Cleaning the Glass数据显示，2020-21 赛季，没有詹姆斯和戴维斯的阵容在所有阵容中的进攻效率排名第 15 ，净效率为-3.2? ，这是剔除垃圾时间的因素。本赛季，威斯布鲁克这样的阵容每100回合得分超过2.8分?，进攻效率排名第30位。
Not coincidentally, James has logged heavy minutes in two of the three Lakers games without Davis this season, all of them wins. James played 43-plus minutes in an overtime win at the?Indiana Pacers?last month and 37 minutes in a home victory over the lowly?Orlando Magic?earlier this month, though Vogel was able to limit him to 35 minutes in a blowout win at the?Oklahoma City Thunder. Playing without Davis will make it that much tougher to rest James during the next month.
并非巧合的是，詹姆斯在本赛季没有戴维斯的三场湖人比赛中有两场上场时间很长，而且都赢了。詹姆斯在上个月对阵印第安纳步行者队的加时赛中出场超过 43 分钟，在本月早些时候主场战胜奥兰多魔术的比赛中出场时间超过 37 分钟?，尽管沃格尔在对阵俄克拉荷马雷霆比赛中将他的出场时间?限制在 35 分钟以内?。没有戴维斯的比赛会让詹姆斯在下个月更难休息。
Favorable schedule — to a point有利的时间表——某种程度上
The good news for the Lakers is that, after splitting their first two games on this road trip, they will be heading home following Sunday’s matchup with the?Chicago Bulls. Additionally, with COVID-19 affecting rosters around the NBA, some of L.A.’s upcoming games no longer look as difficult as they did on paper.
对湖人队来说，好消息是，在结束了前两场客场之旅后，他们将在周日与芝加哥公牛队的比赛后回家?。此外，由于 COVID-19 影响了 NBA 的球队阵容，洛杉矶主场的比赛看起来不再像之前那么困难。
For Sunday’s contest, the Bulls have listed four players (including All-Star guard?Zach LaVine) as unavailable due to health and safety protocols and a fifth (reserve?Matt Thomas) as doubtful. The Lakers’ Christmas Day matchup against the?Nets?also could be far less daunting with Brooklyn stars?Kevin Durant?and?James Harden?both subject to the protocols.
After Christmas, six of the Lakers’ next eight games will be against teams that are currently below .500. However, there are two important caveats when it comes to the schedule.
圣诞节过后，湖人队接下来的八场比赛中将有六场对阵目前胜率低于 50% 的球队。但是，在赛程上有两个重要的警告。
First, the Lakers again find themselves in a position of needing to take advantage — something they haven’t been able to do thus far. The Lakers are just 11-8 thus far against below-.500 teams, putting them 18th in the league. They’ve been relatively better against above-.500 opponents, going 5-6 to rank ninth in the NBA.
首先，湖人队再次发现自己需要利用优势的位置——这是他们迄今为止无法做到的。到目前为止，湖人队对阵胜率低于 50% 支球队的战绩仅为 11-8，在联盟中排名第 18。他们在对抗胜率高于 50%的对手时表现相对更好，以 5-6 的战绩在 NBA 中排名第九。
Second, if Davis’ injury sidelines him beyond the next four weeks, the schedule starts getting more difficult. We’re a little less than five weeks away from the Lakers beginning a six-game road trip that includes stops at Brooklyn, the?Miami Heat?and the?Philadelphia 76ers. The Lakers will surely hope Davis is back for those tilts.
其次，如果戴维斯的伤病让他在接下来的四个星期后缺席，赛程就会开始变得更加困难。我们距离湖人队开始六场客场之旅还有不到五周的时间，其中包括在布鲁克林、迈阿密热火队?和?费城 76 人队。湖人队肯定会希望戴维斯能够回归赛场。
Assuming his reevaluation in four weeks goes well, Davis should be back not long after the season’s midpoint, leaving plenty of time for a second-half run if the team can take care of business at home. Yet the Lakers have already lost much of their margin for error.
A top-four seed already looks unlikely for the Lakers, leaving them little comfort to avoid the play-in tournament. A drop-off of a couple of wins in Davis’ absence could be the difference between the Lakers resting up and preparing for their opening-round matchup or, like last season, having to win a game to get there and putting more mileage on their stars.